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PWIN · Maritime

Where the world's trade is squeezed.

Ten chokepoints carry roughly 80% of seaborne trade. We score each in real time — weather from the open-meteo Marine API, plus a curated conflict baseline maintained by the desk — and surface the points under the most stress right now.

Conflict tier is a static curated baseline, not a live conflict feed. Rigor for this signal is queued — directional read, not validated alpha.

Last reading
Apr 25, 8:00 AM UTC
Fleet status
Live
Top stress
86/100
Bab-el-Mandeb
Elevated chokepoints
2/5
score ≥ 40
Trade gated
47%
rough seaborne share
Cadence
8h
next refresh windowed
Chokepoint boardsorted by stress · 5 points
01
Bab-el-Mandeb
Red Sea / Gulf of Aden · 12% of seaborne trade
Houthi anti-ship missile + drone targeting since late 2023 has rerouted majors around the Cape of Good Hope.
ZIMMAERSK.COCMREFROSTNGXLE
Weather
28/100
Wave 1.2 m · Wind 20 kt
Conflict baseline
High
Static curated baseline
Combined stress
High stress0–100
86
score
02
Bosphorus
Türkiye · 3% of seaborne trade
Russia/Ukraine grain corridor sits downstream; insurance terms still reflect war-zone classification.
WEATCORNMOSCFXLE
Weather
2/100
Wave 0.1 m · Wind 1 kt
Conflict baseline
Elevated
Static curated baseline
Combined stress
Elevated0–100
55
score
03
Lombok Strait
Indonesia · 2% of seaborne trade
Deep-draft alternative to Malacca; weather and current dominate risk.
FROSTNGBTU
Weather
28/100
Wave 1.8 m · Wind 5 kt
Conflict baseline
Low
Static curated baseline
Combined stress
Watch0–100
28
score
04
Strait of Malacca
Indonesia / Malaysia / Singapore · 25% of seaborne trade
Stable but heavily congested; piracy incidents tracked, no organized state-actor disruption.
ZIMMATXTSMNVDAAAPL
Weather
7/100
Wave 0.1 m · Wind 8 kt
Conflict baseline
Watch
Static curated baseline
Combined stress
Watch0–100
26
score
05
Panama Canal
Panama · 5% of seaborne trade
No state-actor risk; primary disruption vector is hydrological — Gatun Lake drought caps daily transits.
ZIMMATXWEATCORNFGM
Weather
4/100
Wave 0.2 m · Wind 1 kt
Conflict baseline
Low
Static curated baseline
Combined stress
Calm0–100
6
score
Methodology

Weather inputs are pulled per-chokepoint from the open-meteo Marine and Weather APIs (no API key, public hourly data). The weather component scales wave height (60%), swell (15%), and wind speed (30%) onto a 0–100 axis. The conflict component is a desk-curated baseline: low → high. Combined stress is a weighted maximum so the two risk axes are not double-counted. Read the full source at /api/pwin/shipping.

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