The normal-breadth test sits at 75% with 2 of 8 names elevated

2 of 8 monitored names sit elevated while 75% normal breadth holds. The mechanism is China pressure routes through tanker insurance and the crude curve before the index reacts.

The hedge layer has repriced. The equity tape has not.

Path-dependence here is a same-region second event, not a louder version of this one. Energy and defensive proxies have done the repricing so far; the index hasn't followed.

SPY was the only name to reprice; the rest stayed flat.

SPY moved at 50% conviction. That is the canonical pattern for energy-channel stress: hedges step before equities, freight before earnings, defense before procurement headlines. Watch whether breadth follows or stays at 75%.

Wall Street is pricing this as a headline; the hedge layer disagrees.

Source-event severity already exceeds 2019 Gulf-tanker analog at this stage; risk premium understates the second-event reflex. The implied volatility surface, desk notes, and CFTC positioning all point the same way; that is the setup where a second event reprices the curve in a single session.

Hedges said something; the index has to confirm.

If SPY holds normal through the next two sessions, the read stays "proxy stress, not regime change." Until that confirmation arrives, this is watch-only.

Fresh event confirmation

A second independent event in the same region raises confidence.

Normal breadth review line

Normal-breadth deterioration would move the dossier from source-risk watch to market-impact review.

Core anchor confirmation

Core anchor deterioration is required before a geopolitical source event changes the regime verdict.

Source freshness

Live analysis requires fresh, dated events, not static baseline data.

OpenSky airspace clearance sustained

Commercial traffic absent from a corridor without a published NOTAM is a leading routing-around signal.

FIRMS infrastructure-proximate thermal zone

A thermal anomaly within 5km of a named refinery, port, or military site reads as strike confirmation.

OFAC designation pace doubling

A burst of fresh OFAC designations against the focus region precedes formal escalation.

UCDP cluster lethality threshold

Month-over-month lethality jumps in a canonical cluster are the strongest baseline-density warning.

CFTC crowded positioning extreme

Spec positioning crossing 90th or 10th percentile creates asymmetric reaction risk on the next event.

Force majeure citation cluster

Clustered force-majeure language across monitored fleet 8-Ks flags route-level commercial stress.