Cross-Asset Snapshot
Full Signal State Matrix — 12 Assets
14:32 ET · Apr 20, 2026
| Symbol | Asset | State | Cluster | Confidence | Change | Analytical Category |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | S&P 500 | Normal | Institutional | 87% | −0.8% | Core anchor — primary regime indicator. Stable. |
| GOOGL | Alphabet | Normal | Growth | 78% | +1.9% | Core growth. Positive delta is a breadth stabilizer. |
| QQQ | Nasdaq 100 | Normal | Growth | 71% | −1.1% | Core growth. Softening delta but state stable. |
| XLE | Energy | Normal | Growth | 68% | +2.3% | Sector proxy. Positive — partial offset to defensive stress. |
| AAPL | Apple | Normal | Growth | 65% | +0.3% | Core large-cap. Stable. |
| BTC | Bitcoin | Normal | Institutional | 61% | +3.1% | Risk-on proxy. Positive delta — anti-correlated with defensive stress. |
| TLT | Long Bond | Elevated | Defensive | 44% | −1.2% | Macro hedge proxy. Concurrent stress with GLD — expected pattern. |
| MSFT | Microsoft | Elevated | Institutional | 54% | −0.7% | Core adjacent. More concerning than defensive proxy stress. Watch closely. |
| NVDA | Nvidia | Elevated | Growth | 52% | −2.1% | Core growth adjacent. Elevated, not High Risk. Most watched single asset. |
| TSLA | Tesla | High Risk | Defensive | 33% | −4.3% | Sentiment beta. 3rd transition in 5 sessions — fragility pattern confirmed. |
| GLD | Gold | High Risk | Defensive | 29% | −0.9% | Macro hedge. Escalated from Elevated Apr 18. Concurrent with TLT. |
| VIX | Volatility | High Risk | Defensive | 22% | +8.4% | Trailing indicator. Range breakout confirms prior stress — not originating it. |
What Is Deteriorating vs. What Is Intact
Deteriorating
Signal breadth
83% → 75% over 2 sessions. Trajectory matters more than level. Rate: ~4pt/session.
Defensive proxy demand
GLD and TLT concurrently stressed. Macro hedge rotation active and accelerating.
Sentiment beta fragility
TSLA High Risk for third time in five sessions. Repeated transitions without recovery = confirmed fragility pattern.
NVDA / MSFT — elevated, watching
Core-adjacent growth assets now Elevated. Not yet High Risk — but the most analytically significant watch condition in the current setup.
Intact
Core anchor confidence
SPY at 87% — unchanged for 3 sessions. The primary stabilizing element of the current setup. Has not softened.
Core asset states
SPY, QQQ, AAPL, GOOGL, BTC, XLE all in Normal state. Six of twelve. Core set structurally intact.
Regime classification
Institutional remains primary. No review trigger. No classification change. Framework intact.
BTC / XLE positive delta
Risk-on proxies maintaining positive deltas — partial anti-correlation to defensive stress. Supports the macro-hedge interpretation over fear-driven breakdown.
Key Metrics
Breadth
75%
↓ from 83% · 2 sessions
Review threshold: 73%
Review threshold: 73%
SPY Confidence
87%
Unchanged 3 sessions
Watch: below 80%
Watch: below 80%
At Risk
6 / 12
3 Elevated · 3 High Risk
None are core anchors
None are core anchors
Core Intact
6 / 6
SPY QQQ AAPL GOOGL
BTC XLE — all Normal
BTC XLE — all Normal
Conditions That Would Escalate Concern
| Severity | Condition | Implication | Current Distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Critical | SPY or QQQ transitions from Normal | Regime review immediately triggered regardless of other conditions | Not signaled — anchor holding |
| Critical | Breadth below 67% | Three further transitions — signals system-wide deterioration, not peripheral stress | 5 transitions away |
| Elevated | Breadth at 73% | Formal confidence review triggered — 3–7 session reassessment period begins | 2 transitions away |
| Elevated | NVDA → High Risk | Core-adjacent growth asset in high risk — stress moving toward center of regime | Currently Elevated (52%) |
| Elevated | SPY confidence below 80% | Primary leading indicator of regime deterioration — has not moved despite breadth decline | 7pt margin current |
| Watch | VIX sustained above prior range through 3 sessions | Confirms volatility breakout as structural rather than transient | Session 1 today |
Risks and Limitations
Transition speed risk
Signal confirmation has a time lag. Rapid sequential transitions could produce conditions that are further along before the framework reflects them. Speed of deterioration is not fully captured in the current state display.
Universe concentration
The 12-asset monitored universe is concentrated in large-cap equity, equity-adjacent instruments, and financial-market proxies. Energy sector physical markets, pharmaceutical supply chain disruption, and commodity stress may not be fully captured.
Composition interpretation
The analytical interpretation of stressed-asset composition (peripheral vs. core) is based on historical pattern recognition. The current geopolitical configuration is novel in some respects, which may alter how stress propagates.
Related
Signal Alert
Regime Watch
Intelligence Brief
VIX Range Breakout — Volatility Complex Transition
Trigger analysis, 5-session history, watch conditions
Institutional Regime — Posture and Watch Conditions
What could change the classification, thresholds, historical comparables
Geopolitical Risk Is Present but Not Yet Primary
Macro synthesis, transmission channels, scenario framework
Risk Conditions assessments reflect current signal data and are updated continuously. Nothing in this page constitutes investment advice.