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War Risk

Where the underwriters are pricing the next escalation.

The Lloyd's Joint War Committee designates geographic areas requiring war risk premium loading. The committee draws on intelligence feeds equity markets don't see. When three independent theaters reprice within 45 days, the actuarial community has reached consensus on a systemic escalation — and equity tape historically catches up 14–42 days later.

JWC listed-area status verified against lloyds.com. Premium ranges are curated by the desk from TradeWinds, Lloyd's List, and specialist broker reports — not a live feed. Rigor for this signal is queued; transmission-lag claim is calibrated on two historical episodes (2022 Ukraine, 2023 Red Sea). Treat as directional framework.

Last reading
Awaiting first ingest
JWC register
Curated baseline
Convergence rule · jwc-multi-theater-premium-convergence · v1
7 corridors revised in window — threshold not met

Below threshold. The desk is monitoring premium movements and listed-area revisions; convergence will fire automatically when three corridors across two theaters all sit at elevated tier with revisions inside the 45-day window.

Corridors ≥ elevated
6/7
Triggering theaters
0
Highest premium
0.50–0.70% of hull
Red Sea & Gulf of Aden
Listed corridors
5/7
on JWC register
Revisions in window
7
last 45d
Cadence
6h
register verification
Corridor boardsorted by tier · 7 corridors
01
Red Sea & Gulf of Aden
Red Sea · JWC listed · revised today
The most active war risk corridor on the planet. Premium has not normalized despite 14+ months of conflict; underwriters are pricing this as a structural shift, not an episode.
  • Houthi anti-shipping kinetic activity sustained
  • Container majors continue Cape of Good Hope routing
  • No de-escalation pathway visible in broker assessments
ZIMGOGLDACMATXFROSTNGXLEUSO
Premium range
0.50–0.70% of hull
Curated · per voyage
Last revision
2026-03-12
Inside window
Risk score
High0–100
78
score
02
Black Sea
Black Sea · JWC listed · revised today
Premium loading is highest of any corridor on the JWC register. Specialist brokers reprice on a per-voyage basis with separate Russian/Ukrainian port surcharges.
  • Ukrainian naval drone operations against Russian Black Sea Fleet
  • Romanian and Bulgarian port approaches require specialist coverage
  • Grain corridor disruption risk repriced after recent strikes
WEATCORNADMBGGOGLNAT
Premium range
1.20–1.50% of hull
Curated · per voyage
Last revision
2026-04-02
Inside window
Risk score
High0–100
78
score
03
Persian Gulf & Strait of Hormuz
Persian Gulf · JWC listed · revised today
Directional move, not absolute level, is the signal here. Premium has stepped up twice in 60 days — that is the actuarial pattern that historically precedes a kinetic event by 14–42 days.
  • Iranian-linked vessels conducting close-approach operations on non-flagged tankers
  • IRGC naval exercise tempo elevated across northern Gulf
  • Underwriters treat close-approach as precursor to seizure
FROSTNGNATDHTXLEUSOBNO
Premium range
0.30–0.50% of hull
Curated · per voyage
Last revision
2026-04-10
Inside window
Risk score
Elevated0–100
50
score
04
Eastern Mediterranean
Eastern Mediterranean · JWC listed · revised today
Premium has not compressed even during quiet periods. Underwriters are holding the loading because the regional threat assessment hasn't reset.
  • Israeli/Lebanese maritime risk premium maintained
  • Cyprus and Israeli port approaches loaded
  • Spillover risk from Red Sea activity into wider Mediterranean basin
ZIMCMREXLECHKP
Premium range
0.15–0.35% of hull
Curated · per voyage
Last revision
2026-02-28
Inside window
Risk score
Elevated0–100
50
score
05
Taiwan Strait
East Asia · not listed · revised today
Watch the JWC registry for a Taiwan listing. The day Taiwan goes on the register is the day the semiconductor tape carries a war-risk premium that has not yet been priced into TSM or its downstream.
  • PLA exercise tempo across median line elevated and sustained
  • Specialist brokers quoting voluntary loading; no formal JWC listing yet
  • A formal JWC listing on Taiwan would be a near-binary semiconductor tape signal
TSMNVDAAVGOAMDASMLINTC
Premium range
0.05–0.15% of hull
Curated · per voyage
Last revision
2026-01-15
Inside window
Risk score
Elevated0–100
50
score
06
Gulf of Guinea
West Africa · JWC listed · revised today
Different threat class — non-state piracy. Premium movements here do NOT contribute to the multi-theater convergence signal because the actuarial drivers are uncorrelated with state-actor escalation.
  • Persistent piracy/kidnapping risk, separate from kinetic state-actor risk
  • Nigerian Bonny Light loading premium
  • War risk and K&R coverage often bundled by specialist brokers
XLECVXXOMTTESTNG
Premium range
0.10–0.25% of hull
Curated · per voyage
Last revision
2025-11-04
Inside window
Risk score
Elevated0–100
50
score
07
South China Sea
South China Sea · not listed · revised today
Used as a control corridor — when even this corridor reprices, the regional risk regime has fundamentally shifted.
  • No formal JWC listing
  • Episodic Philippine-China incidents in Spratly/Scarborough but not at premium-moving scale
  • Reference corridor for "what business-as-usual looks like"
MATXZIMTSMCCL
Premium range
0.02–0.05% of hull
Curated · per voyage
Last revision
2024-06-01
Inside window
Risk score
Low0–100
10
score
Methodology

The convergence rule fires when ≥ 3 corridors with elevated-or-worse tier have been revised within the last 45 days AND span at least 2 independent theaters (Iran-axis, Russia-Ukraine, China-Pacific are distinct; piracy-class corridors are excluded). Each ingestion attempts to verify corridor status against the public lloyds.com JWC listed-areas page; if the fetch fails or a corridor cannot be confirmed, the row is labeled curated_baseline so consumers know which fields are live and which are desk-curated. Premium ranges are always curated. Read the full envelope at /api/risk/war-risk.

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