Trace the chain
Five steps, walked one at a time. Each step may only use what the steps before it established — the tool enforces the same discipline the issue was written under.
Step 01 of 05Class A · Primary record
Agreement
The visible transaction: a supply agreement between two named parties, filed and dated. Read alone it is unremarkable — the kind of contract that runs in the background of an ordinary quarter.
Establishes
- The two parties and the instrument connecting them.
- That the agreement is current and filed.
Does not establish
- Who bears the financing risk behind it.
- Any size or duration claim.
Why step order matters
A step may only use what the steps before it established. Step three cannot borrow step four's conflict to explain itself.
Where alt data sits
Alt-series evidence corroborates; it never opens or closes a step on its own record.
If the trace breaks
The trace breaks at the step whose falsifier is observed — the issue is retired at that step, not rewritten around it.
The full trace, printed
No.StepEstablishesDoes not establish
01AgreementThe two parties and the instrument connecting them.; That the agreement is current and filed.Who bears the financing risk behind it.; Any size or duration claim.
02Financing counterpartyThat a financing counterparty exists and is distinct from the visible parties.; That the two documents describe the same underlying transaction.The counterparty's solvency or capacity.; That the obligation is currently being met.
03Collateral poolThat some collateral pool exists behind the obligation.; That its scope is narrower than the visible transaction implies.The pool's exact composition.; Any valuation of what it contains.
04Unpriced legThat the two descriptions conflict and cannot both be operative.; That the conflict is unresolved as of publication.Which description will prove correct.; A timeline for resolution.
05TransmissionThe direction the exposure would run if the reading holds.; The single observation that would confirm or break it.That the transmission has already occurred.; Any magnitude for the exposure.
Document index
IDDocumentClassNote
D1The supply agreement, as filedClass AEstablishes the visible transaction only.
D2The financing side-letterClass ANames the financing counterparty.
D3Collateral pool disclosure (indirect)Class CBoundaries inferred, not stated outright.
D4The contingent-vs-committed filingsClass DThe unresolved contradiction itself.
D5Alt-series confirmationClass BMeasured, not filed.
D6Correlation series (shipping proxy)Class ACorrelation only — not confirmation.