United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)

State is the ARCANE state model on a single-instrument basis: it reads this company's own daily price and volume history rather than a cross-asset panel. That is a deliberate choice and the one the desk's research prescribes for a single instrument — measured against broader constructions, the narrower one performs better per-instrument. The model's construction is not disclosed; what is stated here is what it observes and the rules its output obeys.

Two calibrations here depart from the engine as shipped, because it was tuned on an index and ETF universe rather than on single equities. Both alert thresholds and the drawdown tiers are recomputed against this company's own trailing distribution: the shipped −3% “elevated drawdown” tier marks the 22nd percentile on the S&P 500 and the 93rd on a name like UnitedHealth, so applied unchanged it is permanently true and stops distinguishing anything. Every threshold is computed from bars strictly before the session it judges, so no band drawn above was fitted to an outcome it had already seen. This is a recalibration for a different population, not a demonstrated accuracy gain — this site holds no forward outcome labels, and none is claimed.

A state is a measurement, not advice. It carries no side, no size, no entry and no exit, and nothing on this page should be read as a recommendation to trade.

Revenue, net income and EPS are read from the company's own XBRL facts — US GAAP tags where the filer uses them, IFRS tags for a 20-F filer that does not. Where four contiguous quarterly facts exist they are summed and labelled TTM; where they do not, the latest annual figure is shown and labelled by fiscal year; where there is neither, a single quarter is shown and labelled as one. The three are never presented under the same word. A US filer never reports its fourth quarter alone, so where a TTM figure exists that quarter is the annual figure minus the nine-month stub filed with it — exact arithmetic on two reported facts, noted above wherever it was used. Figures are as reported, in the filer's own currency, and are not restated for later revisions beyond what the filer itself has amended.

Staleness is part of the reading. A company whose last periodic report is five months old is a company most of whose current position is undisclosed, whatever the price is doing.

Headlines are third-party reporting carried for context. They are not desk evidence and do not feed any reading above; nothing on this page is derived from them except the co-filed tickers row, which says so.

These six fields do not come from a market feed and are not filled by one. They read ‘—’ until a published, sourced investigation covers this company, at which point they carry that investigation's documents. Current investigations →

Assembled Aug 23, 2026. A figure that could not be sourced this fetch reads ‘—’; none is carried forward from an earlier one. This page is a record, not advice, and holds no view on whether any security should be bought or sold.