Section
Convergence
A candidate becomes an issue when the relationship is documented, the transmission path is one-directional, and the observation that would break the reading is stated in advance. If nothing clears, nothing is sent.
The runAbove the axis, issues that cleared; below it, chains that did not.Marker position is the publication date
May 2026 · held01A routing precedent with a longer half-life than the volume
Jun 2026 · restated02Subsidy incidence one tier below the stated target
Jul 2026 · held03A shared counterparty behind two unrelated portfolios
Aug 2026 · open04The financing layer beneath a supply agreement
Gap · nothing clearedNow
R1
A counterparty relationship inferred from one filing only
Failed at Evidence — one primary document is not two.
R2
A dependency claim invalidated by later disclosure
Failed at Falsification — the stated falsifier was observed before the issue could run.
M−13M−11M−8M−5M−2Now
■ Published■ Open□ Retired
6 chains worked · 4 published (1 open) · 2 retired03Held
Hidden exposure · Jul 2026
A shared counterparty behind two unrelated portfolios
Reading has held since publication.
Jul 2026
02Restated
Second-order effect · Jun 2026
Subsidy incidence one tier below the stated target
Restated after the incidence data broadened.
Jun 2026
01Held
Weak signal · May 2026
A routing precedent with a longer half-life than the volume
Reading has held since publication.
May 2026
R1
A counterparty relationship inferred from one filing only
Retired: never cleared a second confirming source.
R2
A dependency claim invalidated by later disclosure
Retired: the falsifying observation arrived before publication.
Why they are on the axis
Every published issue stays open to restatement, and every retired candidate stays listed with the step it failed at. Nothing is removed from it.