How a forecast becomes a record

0resolutions a model can approve on its own

A Call is scored only if it was recorded before its outcome. A model may propose a resolution, but only an editor can approve one, and only against an exact passage quoted from the source registered with the Call. Records are appended, never edited or deleted. Ambiguity stays open; it never becomes a NO.

Every ARCANE article carries a read: a thesis, the observable that would show it, a horizon, what would confirm it and what would break it. A Call is that read in a form that can be checked later against an exact source and deadline.

The source registered with the Call is retrieved again and hashed. A model may read it and propose an outcome, but it must quote the exact passage it relies on. A passing quote only moves the Call to editor review.

The editor checks the passage against the original criterion and deadline, including whether it reports an observation or only another forecast. Before anything is written, the source is retrieved once more and must match the reviewed copy byte for byte. The decision is appended once. A changed page or criterion needs a fresh review.

We do not create a historical forecast, choose a missing deadline, or change an outcome once recorded. The absence of confirming text is not a NO. Every attempt, refusal and unresolved case is kept, so the record cannot be improved by quietly dropping the misses.

A first prospective window for rates and credit Calls is planned, with held-out enrollment from 25 November to 25 December 2026 and review no earlier than 25 January 2027, and only with at least 30 independently resolved cases. These are planned windows, not evidence that anything has run. Public timestamping of each run is under evaluation and not yet switched on.

• Source passages and receipts are private ledger material; the method is public, the retained copies are not redistributed.
• PDF and other binary sources stay unresolved until a checked text path exists.
• An editor is still a single point of judgement. The quoted passage is kept so any reader can second-guess it.

Published

the resolution rules and the planned evaluation windows.

Withheld

storage, retention policies, internal schemas and source copies.

1. 21 Sep 2026Resolution custody rules adopted.
2. 22 Sep 2026First public edition on Labs.
3. 25 Sep 2026A figure drawn from the published numbers added. No wording or number changed.

@techreport{arcane2026howa,
  title       = {How a forecast becomes a record},
  author      = {{ARCANE Research}},
  institution = {ARCANE Intel},
  type        = {Method card},
  year        = {2026},
  url         = {https://arcaneintel.net/research/how-a-forecast-becomes-a-record}
}