Prediction markets
What traders are paying, right now, for the outcomes that move portfolios: the Fed and the US data calendar on Kalshi; war, energy and trade on Polymarket.
Fed, Oct 2026
93%
Hold
CPI, next print
3.9%
Even-odds level, year on year
Recession this year
4%
−1 pts on the week
Markets read
21
Kalshi and Polymarket
The US data calendar
Kalshi · each contract settles on the official release| Question | Price · week’s move | Closes | Traded, 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decision in Oct 2026?Kalshi | Hold93% +6 ptsHike 25 bp8% −6 ptsCut more than 25 bp1% 0 pts | Oct 28 | 625,145 contracts |
| CPI YoY in NovemberKalshi | Above 3.8%65% +5 ptsAbove 3.9%45% +8 ptsAbove 4.0%35% +8 ptsEven odds at 3.9% | Dec 10 | 5,611 contracts |
| Jobs numbers in October 2026?Kalshi | Above 60K61% +5 ptsAbove 70K52% −5 ptsAbove 80K42% −4 ptsEven odds at 72K | Nov 6 | 2 contracts |
| Unemployment in OctoberKalshi | Above 4.1%70% +4 ptsAbove 4.2%33% +3 ptsAbove 4.3%7% −4 ptsEven odds at 4.2% | Nov 6 | 4,577 contracts |
| US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?Kalshi | Above 2.5%79% −3 ptsAbove 3.0%61% −7 ptsAbove 3.5%30% −3 ptsEven odds at 3.2% | Oct 30 | 8,128 contracts |
| Recession this year?Kalshi | Yes4% −1 pts | Jan 31 | 3,005 contracts |
| Recession in 2027?Kalshi | Yes21% −1 pts | Jan 31 | 8,376 contracts |
Kalshi public market data · read Oct 23, 4:46 PM EDT · priced Oct 23, 4:46 PM EDT
The Fed, venue against venue
Fed decision in Oct 2026The same meeting priced on two venues. A gap of more than a few points is a disagreement between two sets of traders, or a difference in how each contract resolves; either is worth knowing before quoting one of them.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cut more than 25 bp | 1% | <1% | +1 pts |
| Cut 25 bp | 1% | <1% | +1 pts |
| Hold | 93% | 93% | 0 pts |
| Hike 25 bp | 8% | 8% | 0 pts |
| Hike more than 25 bp | 1% | <1% | +1 pts |
War, energy and trade
Polymarket · markets with at least $25,000 of liquidity| Question | Price · week’s move | Closes | Traded, 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shipping lanes | |||
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?Polymarket | October 317% +1 ptsNovember 3021%December 3135% +1 ptsMarch 3157% | Nov 1 | $206K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Polymarket | Yes<1% 0 pts | Nov 1 | $146K |
| Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?Polymarket | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate69% +7 ptsNo Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate30% −2 ptsAgreement + Oil < $80; R Senate<1% −2 pts | Nov 4 | $20K |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Polymarket | October 313% −2 ptsNovember 3012%December 3118% +1 pts | Nov 1 | $15K |
| Energy and commodities | |||
| What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?Polymarket | ↑ $10578% +33 pts↓ $10064%↑ $11035% +13 pts↓ $9526% −38 pts | Nov 1 | $208K |
| Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?Polymarket | Oil ≥ $85; D Senate65% +14 ptsOil ≥ $85; R Senate28% +2 ptsOil < $85; R Senate4% −4 pts | Nov 4 | $76K |
| Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?Polymarket | Oil ≥ $80; D Senate67% +6 ptsOil ≥ $80; R Senate29% −2 ptsOil < $80; R Senate2% −1 pts | Nov 4 | $64K |
| Crude Oil all time high by...?Polymarket | December 3114% +1 ptsMarch 31, 202725% +4 pts | Jan 1 | $34K |
| Conflict and diplomacy | |||
| NATO x Russia military clash by...?Polymarket | October 313% −3 ptsNovember 155%November 3011%December 3118% −6 pts | Nov 1 | $2.0M |
| Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?Polymarket | Yes>99% +82 pts | Nov 1 | $1.1M |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?Polymarket | October 2491% +7 ptsOctober 2881% +1 ptsOctober 3176% 0 ptsNovember 859% −4 pts | Oct 25 | $769K |
| Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Polymarket | Gadi Eizenkot50%Benjamin Netanyahu28% −1 ptsNaftali Bennett14% +1 pts | Oct 28 | $453K |
| Trade and tariffs | |||
| U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?Polymarket | 5–15%89% +10 pts15–25%10% +2 pts25–35%4% −2 pts | Dec 31 | $189 |
| Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?Polymarket | Vietnam13% +2 ptsCanada13% +1 ptsIsrael12% 0 ptsAustralia11% +1 pts | Jan 1 | $75 |
Polymarket · read Oct 23, 4:46 PM EDT · priced Oct 23, 4:46 PM EDT
How to read a price
Each contract pays $1 if the event happens, so its price reads as the market’s probability: 64¢ is 64%. It is what the last traders paid, not a forecast by anyone in particular. Thin books move on small money, and a contract’s resolution rule can differ from the question as you would ask it; open the market before you quote it.
The week’s move is in percentage points against the price about seven days earlier. For a ladder of levels (CPI above 3.5%, above 3.6% …) the page prints the level the market puts at even odds, interpolated between the two rungs either side of 50%.
Venues this read: Kalshi answered · Polymarket answered · Oct 23, 2026
ARCANE reporting
No published ARCANE story is on these markets yet.