Satellite & environment
The physical conditions that reach crop, power, freight and insurance prices: the state of El Niño, the storms at sea, the week’s major earthquakes and the natural events seen from orbit.
ENSO status
El Niño
Advisory · NOAA, Oct 8
Niño 3.4
+3.3°C
Week of Oct 14
Tropical cyclones
1
Strongest: Vance, 90 kt
Quakes M6+, 7 days
3
136 at M4.5 or more
El Niño and La Niña
NOAA Climate Prediction CenterEl Niño Advisory · NOAA’s synopsis, Oct 8, 2026El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance).
Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature against normal, weekly
Latest +3.3°C, in the very strong El Niño range by NOAA’s thresholds. The other regions that week: Niño 1+2 +5.2°C, Niño 3 +4.2°C, Niño 4 +1.1°C.
| Season | Oceanic Niño Index |
|---|---|
| DJF 2026 | −0.4°C |
| JFM 2026 | −0.2°C |
| FMA 2026 | +0.1°C |
| MAM 2026 | +0.5°C |
| AMJ 2026 | +0.9°C |
| MJJ 2026 | +1.4°C |
| JJA 2026 | +1.8°C |
| JAS 2026 | +2.2°C |
Three-month running means of the Niño 3.4 anomaly; five overlapping seasons at +0.5°C or more make an El Niño episode. NOAA’s next discussion is due Nov 12, 2026.
NOAA Climate Prediction Center · read Oct 23, 3:17 PM EDT · data to Oct 14, 2026
Tropical cyclones
Active now, strongest first| Storm | Basin | Wind | Pressure | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VanceHurricane, category 2 | Eastern Pacific | 90 kt | 971 mb | 11.2N, 102.3W |
| Super Typhoon ChampiFrom NASA’s event list | Outside NOAA’s basins | 100 kts | — | Oct 23, 8:00 AM EDT |
| Tropical Cyclone AguedaFrom NASA’s event list | Outside NOAA’s basins | 35 kts | — | Oct 23, 2:00 AM EDT |
| Hurricane TrudyFrom NASA’s event list | Outside NOAA’s basins | 30 kts | — | Oct 19, 8:00 PM EDT |
| Tropical Cyclone WatiFrom NASA’s event list | Outside NOAA’s basins | 45 kts | — | Oct 19, 2:00 AM EDT |
NOAA National Hurricane Center · read Oct 23, 6:03 PM EDT · advisory of Oct 23, 5:00 PM EDT
Significant earthquakes
Past seven days: magnitude 6 or more, or any impact alert| M7.0 | 191 km ENE of Nagqu, ChinaOct 22, 10:33 AM EDT · impact alert orange |
| M6.3 | 197 km NW of Port-Olry, VanuatuOct 20, 12:20 AM EDT · impact alert green · tsunami flag |
| M6.0 | 186 km NW of Port-Olry, VanuatuOct 19, 3:49 AM EDT · impact alert green |
| M5.7 | 48 km WNW of Khuzdar, PakistanOct 17, 1:06 AM EDT · impact alert yellow |
The impact alert is USGS PAGER’s estimate of fatalities and economic loss: green is little, yellow to red is increasingly severe.
US Geological Survey · read Oct 23, 6:03 PM EDT · feed of Oct 23, 6:03 PM EDT
Seen from orbit
NASA’s open natural events, past 30 days36 wildfires · 11 sea and lake ice · 5 severe storms
| Iceberg D35Sea and Lake Ice · Oct 15 |
| Iceberg A83Sea and Lake Ice · Oct 15 |
| Iceberg A81Sea and Lake Ice · Oct 15 |
| Iceberg D33BSea and Lake Ice · Oct 15 |
| Iceberg A85Sea and Lake Ice · Oct 15 |
| Iceberg B52Sea and Lake Ice · Oct 9 |
| Iceberg A76CSea and Lake Ice · Oct 9 |
| Iceberg A84Sea and Lake Ice · Oct 9 |
NASA EONET · read Oct 23, 6:03 PM EDT · newest observation Oct 23, 8:00 AM EDT
Why these, and their limits
El Niño and La Niña shift rainfall and temperature across the tropics for months at a time. Historically a strong El Niño has meant drier seasons in Australia, Southeast Asia and India (wheat, palm oil, sugar), low water for the Panama Canal and fewer Atlantic hurricanes; NOAA stresses that a strong event raises the odds of these effects without guaranteeing any of them.
Storms, quakes and fires matter to prices when they reach ports, refineries, farms or insured property. Each list here is the measuring agency’s own; ARCANE adds no estimate of damage.
ARCANE reporting
No published ARCANE story is on these conditions yet.